Since the whirlwind of speculation over the last decade, which saw watches such as Patek Philippe's Nautilus and Audemars Piguet's Royal Oak reach dizzying heights, the market for collectible watches, known as second-hand watches, is undergoing a necessary readjustment, reminding enthusiasts and investors that now more than ever, passion comes before speculation.
In 2023, the record sale of a Patek Philippe "Sky Moon Tourbillon" for €5.5 million at Christie's Hong Kong highlighted the extraordinary rarity and complexity that continue to attract collectors. However, Geoffroy Ader, watch expert at Artcurial, notes that prices have moderated over the past year, despite an undeniable interest in second-hand pieces, particularly among younger buyers.
Passion rather than speculation
The craze for iconic models such as the Patek Philippe Nautilus, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, and the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona and Submariner series has caused their prices to skyrocket. Tired of the sometimes endless waiting lists to obtain a new watch from authorized dealers and other official retailers, consumers have turned to the second-hand market, known as the gray market.
Investors were particularly encouraged by a BCG study which, in 2020, projected average annual growth of 8% between now and 2025 for pre-owned watches. This is higher than for the luxury industry as a whole, which is expected to grow by 2-3% over the same period, according to analyses by Bain & Company. However, the current economic slowdown following interest rate hikes to counter inflation and the decline in demand in China/Southeast Asia, the driving force behind the boom in recent years, call for a more measured approach, favoring purchases driven by passion, according to Antoine De Macedo, watchmaker and vintage specialist.
For enthusiasts considering purchasing a collector's watch, authenticity and rarity remain key criteria. Specialized platforms such as Watchfinder and Chrono24 now offer authenticity guarantees, boosting confidence in the second-hand market. Rolex, among others, has launched an authentication program for its pre-owned models, reflecting a growing trend toward certification by the brands themselves.
Older, smaller
The recent price correction, particularly for recent models that had experienced an artificial surge, highlights the importance of a cautious and passionate approach. Nicolas Amsellem, from Les Rhabilleurs, refers to a healthy adjustment, particularly for genuine collectible watches dating from before 1990, which continue to withstand market turbulence. These models, which are back in vogue, share certain similarities: leather rather than steel straps, smaller case sizes (under 40mm for men ), and more precious materials such as gold. As with textiles, we are seeing cycles.
This period of readjustment offers collectors an opportunity to rediscover the pleasure of watchmaking without the filter of speculation. As a well-known adage among aficionados reminds us: "You don't invest in watches, you collect them." And if you still want to combine your passion with a profitable investment, we invite you to consult the Sudial50 ranking, which aggregates trends for the 30 best-selling watches on the gray market. It's enough to give you some perspective.