While Rolex production has declined for the second consecutive year, the Geneva-based brand has posted record sales, consolidating its dominance in an increasingly polarized market. This apparent paradox—producing less to earn more—illustrates the profound transformation of Swiss watchmaking, which is now focused on absolute exclusivity and high value.
The paradox of growth through scarcity
According to the recent annual report by Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, Rolex achieved record sales of around 11 billion Swiss francs (approximately 14 billion euros) in 2025, marking a 4% increase over the previous year. What is remarkable is the method: the brand achieved this milestone while reducing its production by 2%. This is the second consecutive year that production has declined, a trend that has not been seen in more than twenty years. This dynamic highlights a major strategic shift: a decline in volumes offset by an increase in revenues, demonstrating the unrivaled pricing power of the crowned brand in the luxury industry.
Unchallenged industrial dominance
One of the most striking findings in the report is that Rolex accounted for around 33% of total sales in the Swiss watch industry last year, with nearly one million watches sold. This dominance is extraordinary: a single company controls a third of the global market. Concentration is the new watchword in the sector, with the combined sales of Rolex, Cartier, Omega, and Patek Philippe accounting for 52.4% of total Swiss watch exports. The market is thus locked around a handful of elite brands.
The challengers' performances
While Rolex leads the way, the competitive landscape of 2025 has seen other companies achieve substantial performances:
Cartier generated approximately $4.5 billion, driven by the timeless popularity of its Tank collection.
Richard Mille posted sales of approximately $4.1 billion despite a modest volume of 5,950 watches. This ratio implies an average price exceeding $689,000 per piece, underscoring its ultra-luxury positioning.
Audemars Piguet achieved approximately $3.3 billion with only 53,000 timepieces sold.
Patek Philippe recorded approximately $3.2 billion for 72,000 units.
Omega, according to Morgan Stanley estimates, generated approximately $2.8 billion, although the Swatch Group disputes these figures, suggesting a discrepancy between analysts' estimates and internal data.
Towards a low-volume, high-value model
The industry trend is clear: total Swiss watch production in 2025 has fallen to around 14.6 million units, which is almost half of the volume in 2011. At the same time, the segment of watches priced above 50,000 Swiss francs (approximately $64,000) accounted for 84% of the industry's growth, even though it represents only 1.4% of total units produced. The Swiss watch industry is no longer seeking to flood the market, but rather to sustain its profitability and prestige through ultra-luxury products.
Geostrategic readjustments
Geographically, exports to China fell by 23% in 2024, contributing to the overall slowdown. Conversely, the US market proved resilient, with exports rising by around 4%. Major players such as Rolex responded by strengthening their distribution networks through strategic acquisitions, such as the purchase of Bucherer, in order to better control their sales channels and meet growing demand in key markets such as the United States.
The future is taking shape in hyper-luxury
As the industry looks ahead to the next editions of Watches and Wonders, the major brands are expected to reinforce their current strategies: producing less, raising prices, and maintaining waiting lists that cultivate desire. The industry's trajectory indicates a priority given to quality, exclusivity, and high margins rather than mass production. Rolex defines and leads this trend, leaving other brands to adapt their strategies to remain competitive in a market segment that is contracting in volume but gaining in value.