After an eventful year in 2025, the global watch industry anticipates major price adjustments, market consolidation, and a redefinition of its strategies in 2026 in response to new economic and technological challenges.
2026: A Year Shaped by Pricing and Consolidation
According to WatchPro, the global watch industry is preparing to enter 2026 after a rather turbulent 2025. The U.S. price lists for Rolex and Tudor, which were leaked in late 2025, announce fairly significant price increases effective January 1, 2026. These adjustments—which, honestly, were predictable—reflect the record rise in the price of gold, widespread inflation, the weak dollar, and the introduction of the much-discussed 15% tax on Swiss imports into the U.S. market.
Rolex anticipates an average increase of about 7% in the United States. More specifically, steel models are expected to rise by 5 to 5.6%, and gold models by close to 9%. Well, in terms of value, this roughly translates to an average increase of 20% for gold watches and about 10% for steel models compared to the end of 2024. These figures are what we saw in the leaked catalog. And, according to WatchPro, the price difference between the United States and the United Kingdom remains relatively modest once taxes and exchange rate fluctuations are taken into account.
The major watchmakers are trying to maintain a certain level of price parity worldwide; this is important to prevent demand from faltering. Several major brands could adopt a strategy we’re already familiar with: raising their prices while slightly reducing the margins given to retailers. It’s a kind of compromise, in fact: the manufacturer bears a larger share of the additional costs generated by import duties, without necessarily causing a direct drop in profits for retailers.
Pressure on Margins and the Risk of Declining Demand
Publicly traded groups such as LVMH, Swatch, and Richemont are already operating on tight margins. Their goal is to raise prices by 5 to 10 percent without losing too much sales volume. But—and this is where it gets a bit riskier—inflation in the supply chain and fragile demand for these high-end watches make this goal far from certain. All in all, 2026 could very well be the year when some weaker retailers and operators are forced to readjust or even exit the market.
Non-Swiss Competition and Japan’s Rise
One important point to note: Switzerland’s market share by volume has been declining since the advent of smartwatches. For example, the Apple Watch is estimated to sell between 40 and 50 million units annually, compared to the 15.4 million watches exported by Switzerland in 2024. And in Japan, things are also changing. Citizen saw its sales and volumes climb in 2024–25, and both Seiko and Casio remain serious competitors. In fact, the figures show that Citizen’s watch revenue is not far behind that of brands like Tudor or TAG Heuer.
Materials and Product Trends
Gold—paradoxically—is seeing increased demand despite soaring prices. Demand is driven by status and the search for a safe haven. But annual price increases of 20% for gold are prompting manufacturers to limit the release of new luxury models. At the same time, there’s a strong trend toward replacing gold with titanium, ceramic, sapphire, or even platinum. And to justify high prices on watches that aren’t necessarily made of precious metals, brands highlight technical complexity and specialized craftsmanship.
A Boost for Jewelers and a Rebalancing Among Retailers
Traditional jewelers are also benefiting from the rise in gold prices. According to WatchPro, “pure players” in the jewelry sector—those who focus exclusively on jewelry—are thriving, with growth and profitability exceeding those of chains specializing in watches. Stores that offer a mix of jewelry and watches seem better prepared. In fact, Watches of Switzerland has begun adjusting its operations by acquiring jewelry brands and launching new stores, indicating that it is revising its strategy.
The trend toward closing small boutiques is continuing. Brands are shutting down unprofitable retail locations in favor of larger, more sophisticated boutiques. Consolidation will continue, and may even accelerate; WatchPro predicts at least one major acquisition, likely that of Watches of Switzerland. All of this is aimed at offering a higher-quality customer experience while maintaining better control over their distribution network.
The Secondary Market and CPO Initiatives
Rolex, with its certified pre-owned watches, currently holds about 10% of the global secondary market, according to EveryWatch. This standard—the Certified Pre-Owned program—has led other players, such as The 1916 Company, to sell only Rolex CPO watches. This is somewhat redefining the value and credibility of the secondary market. Other brands such as Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille are developing or strengthening their own CPO programs. WatchPro points out that by effectively controlling the pre-owned market, one can, above all, preserve the longevity and value of ultra-luxury watches.
Several notable openings are planned. For example, Audemars Piguet will open an AP House in Mayfair, and the largest project remains the Rolex headquarters and showroom tower at 665 Fifth Avenue in New York. The first four floors will be dedicated to retail. At the opening of the London flagship in 2025, CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour stated, and I quote: “I know,” he said. “But I’m not going to tell you.” ” The Manhattan ceremony, meanwhile, is scheduled for late 2026.
In short, 2026 looks set to be a year of rebalancing. Brands will have to strike a balance between the need to protect their margins and the need to retain their loyal customer base. The retailers that succeed will be those that combine jewelry expertise, quality service, and a multi-brand shopping experience. The industry is at a crossroads: should it continue to raise prices without losing the mass market, or accept a controlled contraction to maintain long-term value? Only time will tell.