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Add Texture to GoogleHas France suddenly taken on a disproportionately large share of the Swiss watch industry’s order books? In September, exports to France surged by 128.2%, reaching 246.5 million Swiss francs. This propelled the country to second place among export destinations, accounting for 11.1% of the total. The figure is impressive. Yet it raises more questions than it calls for celebration: the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), like Barclays, points to possible shifts in trade flows between markets, at the expense of other countries in the region. This spectacular result for France sets the tone for a favorable month, but one whose surface appearance warrants closer examination.
A Real Recovery, but a Less Obvious Picture
The uptick in activity is not limited to a single destination. With 2.23 billion Swiss francs in exports in September—equivalent to approximately 2.4 billion euros—the Swiss watch industry posted an 11.7% year-over-year increase. This marks its fourth consecutive month of growth. For the third quarter as a whole, Barclays estimates a 10.1% increase. This trend has therefore persisted long enough to indicate more than just a one-off monthly spike.
But it doesn’t tell the whole story for the year. Between January and September, exports totaled 19.5 billion francs, up 2.7% compared to the first nine months of 2025. The gap between this cumulative growth and the recent acceleration underscores just how much the pace has changed. The sector is now growing faster, though this trend has not yet transformed its annual performance.
It’s also important to consider what these figures measure: exports, not directly the sales of watchmaking groups. This distinction matters, particularly when a country sees the flow of goods destined for it more than double. The growth in France cannot, therefore, be interpreted as driven solely by domestic demand. Across the European Union, the increase stands at 15.5 percent—a figure less spectacular than France’s result.
The U.S. rebound is still feeling the effects of tariffs
The United States offers another example of striking figures that should be interpreted with caution. As the leading market for Swiss watches, the U.S. accounted for 13.2% of September’s exports, totaling 292.9 million francs. The increase reached 85.7%. However, Barclays considers the U.S. result disappointing.
This caution stems from the starting point. In September 2025, during a period marked by volatility linked to tariffs, shipments to the United States had plummeted by 55.6%. The current rebound is therefore measured against a particularly weak month. More importantly, over the first nine months of the year, this market remains down 4.1%. A spectacular monthly percentage increase is not enough to erase this shortfall.
Geographic concentration amplifies the significance of these disparities. The top six destinations account for 52.6% of exports, or 1.17 billion francs, up 29.5%. A large portion of the result therefore depends on a small number of markets, whose performance can be influenced both by comparisons with 2025 and by shifts in trade flows.
From Tokyo to Beijing: Diverging Trajectories
Elsewhere, the picture shows no uniform trend. Japan recorded 177.3 million francs in exports, up 12.3%, following a 7.9% decline in the comparison month. Hong Kong saw more modest growth of 3%. China, on the other hand, saw a 14.2% decline, while Singapore fell by 8.3%. These results make it impossible to speak of a blanket Asian recovery.
For both China and the United Kingdom, the FH highlights an unfavorable basis for comparison. The British market fell by 5.2%, following a 15.2% increase a year earlier, Barclays notes. The dynamic is the opposite of that observed in the United States: following a strong month makes further growth more difficult, though this does not excuse a closer look at the current decline.
In the Middle East as well, the regional total masks differences. Exports rose by 10.8% overall, driven by Saudi Arabia, which saw a 14.9% increase. The United Arab Emirates, by contrast, posted a 9% decline. For luxury firms, this regional landscape calls for a country-by-country analysis rather than a blanket assessment of the luxury sector’s strength.
Steel Contributes to the Recovery
Another key insight from September lies in materials. Wristwatches accounted for 2.13 billion francs in exports, up 11.6%. Within this category, the value of steel models rose by 13%, while that of bimetallic pieces increased by 29.3%. The driving force behind this month’s growth is therefore not to be found solely in precious metals.
Precious metals remain a significant category, accounting for 780.1 million francs. However, their growth is much more modest: export value rose by 1.3%, while volumes fell by 1%. They contribute to the overall result but do not set the pace.
The contrast becomes even clearer when counting the watches. Some 1.4 million wristwatches left Switzerland in September, 19.9% more than a year earlier: approximately 228,000 additional units. Volumes of steel watches rose by 21.5%, while those classified as “other materials” increased by 17.9%. Together, these two categories account for 81% of exported units.
Growth in volume thus outpaced growth in value. This detail shifts the perception of the month: the upturn is not merely due to ever-more-expensive watches. It also reflects a higher number of units shipped, with the categories dominating volume playing a decisive role.
Entry-level prices are rising rapidly, with higher-end prices following suit
The breakdown by price bracket reinforces this trend. According to data cited by Barclays, the category under 200 francs grew by 30.2%, while the category between 200 and 500 francs posted a 52.1% increase. These are the sharpest accelerations in the table.
In the 500- to 3,000-franc range, the increase reached 11.8%. This follows a 4.1% rise a year earlier, suggesting it is more than just a rebound from a low base. This bracket largely follows the overall trend in exports.
Above 3,000 francs, the increase stands at 9.9%. The FH notes that this category continues to make a significant contribution to overall growth, even though its growth remains below average. It is important to distinguish between growth rate and weight: the more affordable segments are accelerating more rapidly, without overshadowing the high-end market. September broadens the foundations of the recovery rather than overturning the sector’s hierarchy.
For the groups, the next verdict will come from their financial results
This shift does not automatically benefit all players equally. Swatch, which Barclays rates as “underweight,” is most exposed to the 500- to 3,000-franc price range. However, this segment is growing at a rate close to the average. The data therefore does not suggest any particular advantage for Swatch related to its price positioning.
For Richemont, which remains rated “overweight,” the bank sees only a moderately favorable signal. It notes that the link between watch exports and the group’s sales has weakened. It also points out that in September 2025, overall exports had declined by 3.1%, making the current comparison easier.
Watches of Switzerland, also rated “overweight,” presents a different picture: the United States, where exports are growing faster than average, plays a central role in assessing its outlook, while the United Kingdom lags behind. These recommendations reflect Barclays’ expectations for relative stock market performance over the next twelve months, not a direct translation of customs statistics.
Upcoming earnings reports will allow us to compare these projections with the companies’ actual performance. Watches of Switzerland is scheduled to report to the market on November 10. Richemont will release its second-quarter results on November 13: two key dates for gauging how the acceleration in shipments is actually translating into sales.